Report: Supply Chains Adapt as Trucking Hits 4-Year High
As companies in the United States keep inventories lean to avoid paying tariff expenses on goods sitting in storage, trucks are in higher demand than they have been in four years, according to a new logistics report.
As companies in the United States keep inventories lean to avoid paying tariff expenses on goods sitting in storage, trucks are in higher demand than they have been in four years, according to a new logistics report.
read at 61.5 in February, up from 59.6 in January, driven by the transportation sector. Any score above 50 indicates the industry is expanding; a score below 50 suggests contraction.
As businesses adjusted to tariff policies, firms have kept inventory levels lean (53.8) to offset existing tariff costs, leading to slower expansion in inventory costs, or the expenses associated with storing and holding goods, (67.8).
聽The strategy has had a direct impact on trucking: with goods moving faster and in smaller batches rather than sitting in warehouses, demand for freight has surged. Trucking prices rose to 76.7, the highest level in four years, while available truck capacity tightened to 41.0, the most constrained since the height of the pandemic shipping boom in late 2021.
鈥淭he previously seen shift toward a stronger freight market continues and pricing (and demand) for freight continues to rise, while at the same time capacity continues to tighten,鈥 said , Ph.D., associate professor of in FAU鈥檚 College of Business.
, a survey of director-level and above supply chain executives, measures the expansion or contraction of the logistics industry using eight unique components: inventory levels, inventory costs, warehousing capacity, warehousing utilization, warehousing prices, transportation capacity, transportation utilization and transportation prices.
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rutgers University, the University of Nevada, Reno, along with FAU, calculated the LMI using a diffusion index to offer a dynamic view of the U.S. supply chain, anticipating economic shifts and trends.
The logistics surge is unfolding against a backdrop of broader economic uncertainty. U.S. GDP grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down sharply from 3.8% the prior quarter, with economists attributing part of the slowdown to reduced government spending and a pullback in imports after the inventory buildup that dominated most of 2025, researchers noted in the LMI report.
Looking ahead, supply chain professionals surveyed for the report expect conditions to tighten further over the next 12 months to 66.3 and transportation prices forecasted to hit 80.9, a level not seen since March 2022.
鈥淕iven the shifting balance of power back toward the shippers, the expectation is that pricing will continue to remain high with commensurate levels of demand and a constricted supply,鈥 Carnovale said. 鈥淭he potential uncertainty may come as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and subsequently impact direct and indirect costs related to logistics metrics across the board.鈥
-FAU-
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